Good morning, HTM family!

Quote of the week…

“Today, or never. That’s my motto.”
~ Mary Poppins

You know that project you’ve been putting off?…

It’s time to get started. TODAY.

Starting doesn’t mean finishing btw… It just means making a tiny bit of progress, even if it’s messy or imperfect. That’s how momentum is built — one tiny step forward at a time.

So, what small move are you going to make today?

OK, onto the money stuff! 👇👇👇

TO DO

Introduce Two Cool People 🙋‍♀️

Your mission this week: Connect one cool person you know —> with another cool person you know.

That’s it. No strings, no expectations, no hidden agendas — just a simple introduction to help two cool contacts expand their networks.

Introducing like-minded folks is a ninja-level life skill. And it has a way of sending good vibes back to you when you least expect it. (Plus, it feels awesome to be the reason two people hit it off.)

So, who are you going to connect today?

ECONOMY

Tariffs, Inflation & Your Wallet

It’s been a crazy week. President Trump rolled out some hefty tariffs — 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on Chinese goods.

**This story is evolving pretty fast, and by the time we publish this newsletter some things will have probably changed 😬… So for now we really just wanted to touch on some basic facts, the likely impacts on us everyday folks, and how to prepare our personal finances in an era of higher potential tariffs.**

First Off — WHY Tariffs?
Generally speaking, adding tariffs to imported goods can bring in revenue to the government, while also giving US businesses a competitive leg up, at least in theory.

Tariffs can also be used as a strategic international negotiation tool to help enforce and protect domestic interests. In this particular case, the White House believes imposing new (extreme and immediate) tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China will force them to assist us in resolving issues like illegal immigration and the influx of drugs to the US.

Tariffs can have some harmful impacts though… They stir the global economy pot, straining international relationships and leading to higher prices for countries that trade goods back and forth. It's a complex dance with far-reaching impacts — and we’re just at the beginning phases.

Who Actually Pays the Tariffs?
Tariffs are paid by importers — usually U.S. companies — not foreign governments.

Sadly, there’s a trickle-down effect. To cover the higher cost of doing business, these price increases get passed down to businesses and, ultimately, to US consumers who buy and use the goods. These new tariffs will act as a tax on everyday Americans. 😭

This means shelling out more for imported stuff — everything from avocados, beer, and electronics, to gasoline, cars, and construction materials. Remember the days of runaway inflation? If these tariffs remain in place for long, it could feel like 2021/2022 all over again, with prices rising on a range of goods and services.

How long will these tariffs remain in place?
It’s hard to say. We can already see the reality of tariffs bringing countries to the negotiating table. In the case of Mexico, tariffs just got delayed for a month as Mexico has agreed to help stop the inflow of drugs like fentanyl.

In the long run, tariffs are bad for free trade and they are bad for consumers. If these tariffs stick around for a meaningful length of time, we’ll all feel the pressure on our finances. Hopefully, we can avoid a long and messy trade war. This might sound like an old-school take, but global free trade is good for everyone.

What Should You Do Right Now?

1. Don’t Freak Out: Inflation headlines love to stir panic, but most people won’t feel an immediate or drastic impact. Take everything you read with a grain of salt and be wary of social media posts specifically designed to push your emotional buttons.

2. Budget Smartly: If prices begin to rise, be intentional with your spending. We went through this a couple of years ago where certain products and services ballooned in price quickly. Prioritize essentials and shop around for alternatives to whatever you’re buying.

3. Keep Investing As Usual: The stock market might rollercoaster a bit as certain news hits the street. Don’t fall for the trap of making investing decisions based on knee-jerk reactions and short-term news. Just keep doing what you’re already doing — buying and holding investments for the long haul.

4. Control What You Can Control: You can’t stop tariffs, but you can manage your money wisely. Cut waste, build savings, and stay flexible for whatever comes down the pike.

At the end of the day, tariffs are just another uncontrollable economic wave headed our way. You’ve surfed bigger ones before probably. Stick to your financial game plan, and you’ll ride this one out just fine too.

We’ll chat more about tariffs and story updates on our upcoming Friday Flight podcast episode!

TOGETHER WITH FACET*

Your Money, Your Life

Are you tired of impersonal robo-advisors or traditional financial planners who may focus solely on numbers?

Facet offers a refreshing alternative that combines cutting-edge technology with the human touch you deserve.

They provide you with flexible access to a team of Certified Financial Planner® professionals who take the time to understand your unique financial journey. Instead of taking a percentage of your portfolio, Facet's transparent flat-fee structure ensures you only pay for the services you need.

Their comprehensive approach goes beyond basic investment management. They offer personalized guidance on retirement planning, tax optimization, estate planning, and more.

Think of it as peace of mind without all the busywork. Because managing your money shouldn’t feel like another thing on your to-do list.

Check out facet.com/howtomoney to learn more about which membership option is best for you.

*Disclosure: Joel and Matt are not members of Facet. They have an incentive to endorse Facet, as they receive cash compensation for introducing you to Facet. All opinions are their own and not a guarantee of a similar outcome.

INVESTING

Buffett’s $1 Million Bet

In 2007, Warren Buffett made a bold bet… He wagered $1 million that a simple S&P 500 index fund would outperform a hand-picked selection of hedge funds over a 10-year period.

The timing was pretty ironic. Because the bet started on Jan 1st, 2008, just as the global financial crisis hit! With the S&P 500 losing around 50% of its value by early 2009, it wasn’t exactly a smooth start for Buffett. 😭

But here’s where the magic of long-term investing came into play.

Despite a horrible beginning, the S&P 500 not only recovered — it crushed the competition. By the time the 10 years were up, Buffett’s chosen index fund had delivered an impressive cumulative gain of 125%, while the hedge funds lagged far behind, returning a paltry-by-comparison 36.3%.

Here’s the performance chart over those 10 years 👇👇👇

A few cool takeaways:

• Bad Timing: It’s scary to invest when the stock market is at all-time highs (like right now!). But even if you have horrible timing and experience a massive crash right after you invest some of your funds, all you have to do is be patient and wait for the recovery. Hey, it worked for Warren!

• Tortoise vs Hare: People are always looking for an investing edge. They want to outperform and make money quickly. But those attempts almost always end in underperformance over the long haul (and lost time, which you can never get back). Stick with index funds —> you will never underperform the benchmark because they ARE the benchmark.

• Fees: Hedge funds not only underperformed, but their high fees ate into returns significantly, making it nearly impossible to keep up. Index funds, on the other hand, are super cheap to buy and hold. Lower fees mean more of your money working harder for you over the long haul.

The simplest strategy is often the smartest one. Stick with the basics, ride out the storms, and trust that time is on your side even if stock market declines are around the corner.

(Oh, and if you’re wondering, the winnings of the bet were all donated to charity. Classic Buffett move.)

Related reads:

• 📉 HTM Blog: 6 Reasons Why Most People Lose Money in Stocks

• 👨‍💻 Passive v Active: 10 Largest Index Funds vs. 10 Largest Active Management Funds Performance in 2024

ICYMI

Noteworthy news…

Vanguard Fees 🥳
Woot woot! Yesterday Vanguard announced they are reducing management fees on 87 different mutual funds and ETFs. Low expense ratios is one of the reasons we love Vanguard.

Travel Trends ✈️
Expedia just released Unpack ‘25 Report — a collection of trends and insights across all their booking platforms. It shows the most popular travel destinationsand the best times of year to travel for certain natural events, etc.

Digital shoplifting 🥷
Interesting stats from Axios… Apparently rich people love stealing from online retailers. Not cool, folks! Like Jiminy Cricket says, “always let your conscience be your guide” — because stealing, no matter how small or who from, isn't just wrong, it chips away at your character. 😬

Fleeing the Inferno 🔥
A great reflection post via More To That on evacuating during the Los Angeles fires. “It’s a cliché to say that life is short, but profound to experience an event that brings that cliché to life.”

Sports Betting 🤮
New surveys find that 1 in 3 sports bettors view gambling as an “investment”. Noooooo! 🤦‍♂️ Even worse — the average person spent $3,284 last year on sports bets, but many are planning to continue (and even increase their gambling budget) in 2025.

I Love Pain 💪
A great read for those of you facing hard tasks: I Love Pain, via Jarred Dillian. “When you take on a challenge, there are only two outcomes: it succeeds, or you learn something. Both of those are excellent outcomes”

COMMUNITY

Shopping Mortgage Quotes FTW 🙌

Cool win shared in HTM Facebook forum last week 👇👇👇

I believe the referenced episode was an old Friday Flight, Ep# 214 — We talk about mortgage rate shopping around ~36 min mark.

We’ll likely cover this more thoroughly in an upcoming episode or future newsletter segment. But for now, if you’re about to buy a home, it’s crucial to get 3-4 quotes for your mortgage including from a couple of local credit unions, a local bank, and a broker that shops across multiple lenders!

Don’t sleep on doing your mortgage due diligence. Even a small .25% reduction can save you thousands in interest over the life of your loan. More to come on this!

That’s it for now. Cheers to a great week ahead! Remember, no more procrastinating on your important goals! — 10% of 2025 is already gone 😳

Best friends out! 🍻